Fears of a fresh conflict in northern Ethiopia are growing after Tigray announced the restoration of its 2020 regional parliament, a move that risks violating the Pretoria Peace Agreement that ended the devastating two‑year war with Addis Ababa.
Why This Matters
The previous conflict between Ethiopia’s federal forces and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) killed an estimated 600,000 people between 2020 and 2022. That war was triggered when Tigray held regional elections in defiance of the federal government — a dispute that spiraled into one of the deadliest conflicts of the decade.
By reinstating the same parliament elected in 2020, Tigray risks reigniting the political dispute that sparked the war in the first place.
Regional Tensions Rising
Observers warn that renewed fighting could draw in Eritrea, whose forces fought alongside Ethiopia during the last conflict. But dynamics have shifted:
- The TPLF has grown closer to Eritrea since the war.
- Eritrea’s relationship with Ethiopia has deteriorated sharply, with Asmara accusing Addis Ababa of seeking to seize its Assab port.
This raises the possibility of a three‑way confrontation, a scenario analysts say would destabilize the entire Horn of Africa.
Historical Context
Ethiopia and Eritrea fought a brutal war from 1998 to 2000 over disputed border towns. The scars of that conflict — and the unresolved tensions — continue to shape today’s political landscape.
Outlook
Tigray’s decision has reopened old wounds and raised new questions about the durability of the Pretoria Agreement. With mistrust deepening and regional alliances shifting, Ethiopia faces a volatile moment that could determine whether the country moves toward reconciliation or slides back into war.