KAMPALA, Uganda — Uganda’s long‑serving president Yoweri Museveni has taken a commanding lead in provisional results from Thursday’s presidential election, according to the country’s electoral commission. The early tally, announced Friday morning, shows Museveni with 76% of the vote based on results from nearly half of polling stations. His main challenger, pop star‑turned‑politician Bobi Wine, trails with about 20%.
A Familiar Contest In Uganda
Museveni, who has ruled Uganda since 1986, is seeking a seventh successive term at the age of 81. His campaign emphasized stability and continuity, portraying him as the guarantor of peace and economic progress. Wine, 43, whose real name is Robert Kyagulanyi, has positioned himself as the voice of Uganda’s youth, promising sweeping reforms and a crackdown on corruption. With more than three‑quarters of the population under 30, his message resonated strongly among younger voters.
Although eight candidates were on the ballot, the race has largely been a two‑horse contest between Museveni and Wine. Analysts note that Museveni’s dominance of state institutions and security forces makes him the overwhelming favorite, despite Wine’s growing popularity.
Allegations of Fraud and Crackdown
Wine has alleged “massive” fraud during the election, which was conducted under an internet blackout imposed earlier in the week. He has not provided documentary proof, and authorities have yet to respond to his claims.
Late Thursday, Wine’s National Unity Platform (NUP) reported that military and police forces surrounded his home in Kampala, effectively placing him and his wife under house arrest. “Security officers have unlawfully jumped over the perimeter fence and are now erecting tents within his compound,” the party posted on X. The authorities have not commented.
This echoes events from the 2021 election, when Wine was confined to his home for several days after garnering 35% of the vote.
Election Day Disruptions
Voting was marred by delays of up to four hours in many polling stations. Ballot boxes arrived late, and biometric machines used to verify voter identities malfunctioned. Some observers linked these problems to the network outage.
The Uganda Communications Commission defended the blackout, saying it was necessary to prevent misinformation, fraud, and incitement to violence. The UN human rights office, however, condemned the move as “deeply worrying.”
Campaign Under Pressure
The campaign period was marked by heavy disruption of opposition activities. Security forces were accused of assaulting and detaining Wine’s supporters, while police spokesperson Kituuma Rusoke dismissed the complaints, accusing opposition activists of being disruptive.
Wine had urged his supporters to protest if results were manipulated, but as of Friday morning, there were no signs of demonstrations.
Museveni’s Legacy and Succession
A Museveni victory would extend his four‑decade grip on power, placing him among Africa’s longest‑serving leaders. Once a critic of leaders who overstayed their welcome, Museveni has since removed constitutional term limits and scrapped the presidential age cap, paving the way for his continued rule.
Speculation persists that Museveni is grooming his son, Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the military chief, as his successor. Museveni denies this, but Muhoozi’s rising profile and controversial social media presence have fueled debate about dynastic politics in Uganda.
International and Domestic Reactions
Western governments have often tolerated Museveni’s rule due to his cooperation on economic reforms and his role as a partner in the US‑led war on terror, particularly through troop contributions in Somalia. Domestically, his supporters credit him with ending post‑independence chaos and hosting more than 1.7 million refugees, making Uganda Africa’s largest refugee host.
Wine’s supporters, however, see him as the embodiment of change. His youthful energy and celebrity status have galvanized Uganda’s younger generation, who have only known Museveni as president.
Outlook
The final results are expected by Saturday afternoon, according to the electoral commission. With Museveni holding a commanding lead, the likelihood of a seventh term appears strong. Yet the allegations of fraud, the internet blackout, and the confinement of Wine highlight the fragile state of Uganda’s democracy.
Whether the country emerges from this election with renewed stability or deeper divisions will depend not only on the final tally but also on how both sides — and their supporters — respond to the outcome. For now, Ugandans wait anxiously, caught between continuity and the hope of change.