ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia — Ethiopian police announced Wednesday that they had seized more than 56,000 rounds of ammunition allegedly sent by neighboring Eritrea to arm rebels in the Amhara region. The discovery underscores the worsening relations between the two Horn of Africa nations, once allies during Ethiopia’s civil war but now locked in a spiral of mutual suspicion.
The Seizure By The Ethiopian Police
According to a police statement posted on Facebook, the ammunition was intercepted in Amhara province while being transported in a lorry. Authorities claim the shipment was intended to arm the Fano militia, a group that rose against the federal government in 2023.
Police further alleged that the consignment transited through Tigray with the assistance of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The TPLF, which once dominated Ethiopian politics, was ousted when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018 and later fought a devastating war against federal forces from 2020 to 2022.
Denials and Counterclaims
The accusations were swiftly rejected.
- TPLF Vice President Amanuel Assefa denounced the claims as “unfounded,” accusing federal authorities of seeking a pretext to undermine the Pretoria Agreement, the peace deal that ended the Tigray war.
- Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Ghebremeskel dismissed Ethiopia’s allegations as “false flags,” insisting Addis Ababa was fabricating evidence to justify a new war.
Eritrea, one of the world’s most closed states, has long bristled at accusations of meddling in Ethiopian affairs.
Historical Context
Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have been fraught for decades:
- Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993 after a long armed struggle.
- The two countries fought a border war from 1998 to 2000, leaving tens of thousands dead.
- When Abiy Ahmed became prime minister in 2018, he sought rapprochement with Eritrea, signing a peace deal that earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.
- During the 2020–2022 Tigray war, Eritrean forces fought alongside Ethiopian troops against the TPLF.
But relations soured after the Pretoria Agreement, which excluded Eritrea from negotiations. Since then, mistrust has deepened, with Addis Ababa accusing Asmara of destabilization and Eritrea accusing Ethiopia of betrayal.
Rising Tensions
In a recent interview with state television, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki escalated rhetoric, claiming Ethiopia’s ruling party had “declared war.” The statement reflects the sharp deterioration in ties, with both governments trading accusations of interference and plotting.
For Ethiopia, the alleged seizure of ammunition is presented as proof of Eritrea’s attempts to fuel unrest in Amhara, where federal forces continue to battle insurgent groups. For Eritrea, the allegations are seen as part of a campaign to isolate and vilify its government.
Implications for the Horn of Africa
The incident has significant regional implications:
- Security instability: Renewed hostility between Ethiopia and Eritrea risks destabilizing the Horn of Africa, already plagued by conflict in Sudan and Somalia.
- Peace accord fragility: The Pretoria Agreement, hailed as a breakthrough, could unravel if mistrust between former allies continues to grow.
- Foreign policy shifts: Ethiopia’s accusations may push it closer to Western powers seeking to contain Eritrea, while Asmara could deepen ties with other regional actors hostile to Addis Ababa.
Analysis
The seizure of ammunition, whether genuine or politically motivated, highlights the fragile state of Ethiopia’s internal and external politics. Domestically, Prime Minister Abiy faces challenges from multiple fronts: Amhara militias, Oromo protests, and lingering tensions in Tigray. Externally, his government must navigate deteriorating relations with Eritrea, a neighbor whose cooperation once bolstered Ethiopia’s military campaigns.
For Eritrea, the accusations reinforce its image as a pariah state, accused of meddling in regional conflicts but rarely transparent about its actions. President Afwerki’s fiery rhetoric suggests Asmara is unwilling to back down, raising fears of renewed confrontation.
Outlook
As Ethiopia awaits further investigations into the seized ammunition, the broader question remains: can Addis Ababa and Asmara avoid sliding back into open conflict? With both sides entrenched in their narratives, the Horn of Africa risks another destabilizing chapter, threatening fragile peace accords and worsening humanitarian crises across the region.