The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised downward its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast, citing slower consumption in advanced economies, where demand is projected to increase by just 100,000 barrels per day.
The cartel now expects global oil demand to grow by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026, down from its earlier projection of 1.4 million barrels per day. This revision would bring total global oil consumption to 106.3 million barrels per day.
In Europe, oil demand is expected to decline by 30,000 barrels per day due to weaker economic activity, according to OPEC’s monthly oil market report.
The organisation also anticipates slower demand growth in parts of Asia, particularly in Japan, where oil consumption is forecast to fall by 80,000 barrels per day.
However, strong demand from major emerging economies is expected to partially offset these declines.
OPEC projects that China will add 250,000 barrels per day to global demand, supported by its expanding petrochemical sector, while India is expected to increase demand by 200,000 barrels per day, driven by infrastructure development and rising vehicle ownership.
Overall, emerging and developing economies are projected to contribute an additional 1.1 million barrels per day to global oil consumption in 2026.
OPEC’s revised outlook reflects a broader reassessment of global oil demand trends.
In its May 2026 report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projected a significantly sharper downturn, forecasting a contraction of 420,000 barrels per day in global oil demand for the year, rather than a slowdown in growth.
The divergence between the two institutions now exceeds 1 million barrels per day, underscoring the uncertainty surrounding the global oil market outlook.
Both organisations identified tensions around the Strait of Hormuz as a key factor driving market volatility. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, six Gulf countries collectively reduced oil production by 10.5 million barrels per day in April—an unprecedented decline outside pandemic periods.
As supply constraints tightened, producers outside the Middle East ramped up output to offset some of the shortfall. Several African producers, including Nigeria, Libya, and Angola, have benefited from increased demand for Atlantic Basin crude among Asian and European buyers affected by reduced Gulf supplies, according to the IEA.
However, not all African producers are fully positioned to capitalise on the opportunity. Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer and an OPEC member, has nonetheless shown encouraging momentum.
According to provisional data released on May 15 by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, Nigeria’s oil production rose from 1.546 million barrels per day in March to 1.663 million barrels per day in April 2026.